***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 22.4 31.9 28.4 64.3 36.5 32.9 28.5 45.3 66.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 27.6 35.6 28.8 67.6 38.2 32.2 32.3 43.5 55.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 30.8 38.1 28.7 66.7 38.4 33.5 33.7 48.4 65.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 32.9 56.5 35.5 92.5 55.6 44.8 33.1 49.9 70.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.1 43.6 31.4 86.3 52.2 43.0 27.5 41.5 58.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.2 46.3 39.6 91.7 54.0 44.2 27.9 42.4 59.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 23.9 30.9 27.6 64.1 34.8 30.0 29.3 42.5 57.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 44.5 56.2 31.1 70.3 39.3 35.7 49.5 67.9 88.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 21.5 33.1 30.0 74.6 44.6 37.7 23.5 38.2 56.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 37.2 48.8 33.6 71.8 41.0 35.8 40.9 57.7 77.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 22.0 35.5 29.4 82.2 48.7 41.0 23.1 36.5 53.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 25.3 38.3 26.5 74.9 44.0 38.6 27.7 44.6 65.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 19.0 36.9 33.8 95.2 57.5 47.7 20.6 31.3 44.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 42.4 49.4 35.5 64.0 34.4 30.8 47.8 65.3 84.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 15.3 40.0 34.8 105.7 63.5 50.1 16.4 27.8 42.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 18.5 33.9 31.9 92.2 55.7 45.9 19.5 29.7 42.2 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 25.8 34.1 30.6 69.9 38.5 31.2 30.8 41.4 53.8 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 35.3 44.0 37.1 67.9 36.6 32.8 40.9 57.1 75.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 29.8 40.4 29.4 68.8 39.8 33.6 35.0 48.7 65.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 33.1 42.5 39.1 74.0 40.0 35.8 37.3 50.4 65.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 26.3 35.6 28.5 69.6 41.5 36.0 29.0 42.7 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 36.9 45.7 32.4 71.7 40.5 33.1 40.5 52.2 65.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 32.8 41.5 30.0 68.3 39.6 33.8 36.7 49.0 63.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 32.6 41.0 34.1 68.3 38.2 33.5 36.6 52.0 69.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 27.6 39.5 34.3 75.3 44.4 38.4 30.0 44.7 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 18.2 27.8 23.8 76.7 46.2 39.1 19.4 30.4 44.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 29.3 39.3 31.9 66.9 37.7 33.7 35.1 51.1 69.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 26.7 51.6 35.3 100.5 60.3 47.9 28.4 41.7 57.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 51.7 60.9 39.0 68.6 35.8 32.6 58.4 74.3 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 28.2 36.4 28.5 66.3 37.6 32.2 33.0 45.5 60.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------