***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.3 18.2 -0.5 40.4 41.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.5 17.9 -0.4 42.4 42.9 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.5 18.3 -0.6 39.0 39.8 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.7 11.8 16.0 -0.4 42.7 43.4 11.2 12.3 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.7 16.9 -0.2 47.0 47.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.1 13.1 14.4 0.2 53.6 53.2 11.9 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.6 17.8 -0.8 36.6 37.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.1 14.4 0.1 52.1 51.6 7.0 7.9 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.1 17.2 0.0 50.8 50.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.0 15.3 0.0 50.7 50.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.0 17.0 0.2 53.7 53.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.9 15.7 0.2 53.8 53.2 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.8 16.0 0.4 60.3 59.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.4 16.6 -0.2 46.0 46.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 16.6 16.7 18.7 0.3 55.5 54.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.6 16.4 0.2 54.8 54.2 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.6 17.8 -0.2 46.7 46.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.2 14.6 -0.1 47.2 47.5 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.8 18.1 -0.3 45.2 45.5 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.4 12.8 0.1 51.9 51.6 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.4 18.1 -0.4 42.7 43.1 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.0 14.9 18.2 0.1 51.2 51.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.7 18.4 0.1 52.4 51.8 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.1 16.7 -0.3 44.7 45.3 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.3 14.8 17.7 -0.3 45.3 45.6 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 0.1 53.1 52.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.4 18.0 -0.4 43.0 43.3 13.7 14.9 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.1 16.9 -0.1 48.5 48.5 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.2 13.9 0.0 50.5 50.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.7 14.7 18.1 -0.6 38.9 39.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------