***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.9 18.5 0.5 59.4 55.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.3 18.4 0.8 65.5 60.5 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.8 18.7 0.5 60.1 55.7 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.6 16.6 0.8 66.7 60.1 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.9 16.9 0.7 64.6 59.1 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.8 14.7 0.9 70.5 63.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 18.4 0.5 60.1 56.5 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.1 14.5 0.8 67.7 61.6 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.0 17.0 0.6 64.7 58.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.9 15.3 0.7 66.0 60.0 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.7 16.6 0.7 66.6 60.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.8 15.6 0.8 67.9 61.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.9 15.2 0.7 66.8 60.4 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.7 16.7 0.7 66.4 60.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.4 18.5 0.8 67.8 60.7 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.3 16.1 0.8 68.5 61.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.3 18.4 1.0 69.9 63.8 15.3 16.2 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.3 14.7 0.7 66.0 60.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.4 18.6 0.9 67.8 62.0 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.1 12.6 0.8 68.3 62.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.6 18.1 0.5 60.2 55.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.4 18.6 1.1 73.0 65.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.0 18.7 1.1 71.8 64.6 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.3 16.7 0.7 64.8 59.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.8 17.6 0.6 62.5 57.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.6 14.8 0.8 67.6 60.9 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.6 18.0 0.5 60.8 55.9 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.2 17.3 0.9 68.3 61.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.9 13.9 0.7 66.6 61.0 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.4 18.5 0.5 61.1 56.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------