***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.6 19.1 0.6 62.6 59.6 14.7 15.8 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.8 16.9 19.1 0.9 69.3 64.8 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.3 19.0 19.5 0.8 67.0 63.1 16.7 17.9 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.7 17.4 1.2 74.3 69.3 12.3 13.7 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.3 17.3 1.1 72.8 67.7 12.6 13.7 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.4 15.7 1.4 79.6 73.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.4 17.0 19.1 0.7 64.4 60.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.8 10.4 15.4 1.2 77.0 71.3 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.5 17.2 0.9 70.7 65.8 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.3 16.0 1.1 74.1 68.7 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.2 17.0 1.2 76.6 71.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.3 16.3 1.3 77.7 71.9 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.2 15.3 1.1 74.6 68.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.2 17.3 1.1 72.3 66.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.8 18.9 1.3 76.6 71.5 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.6 17.2 16.4 1.3 77.1 71.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 18.0 18.2 19.2 1.1 73.1 67.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 1.0 72.5 67.2 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.0 19.3 1.1 72.4 67.2 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.4 13.0 1.1 75.2 69.6 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.3 16.0 18.6 0.8 66.9 63.0 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.6 16.9 19.2 1.3 76.1 69.7 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.6 19.4 1.3 76.6 70.3 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.8 17.1 1.0 71.3 66.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.4 16.2 17.8 0.8 67.2 63.4 13.8 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.4 15.3 1.3 79.1 72.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.5 18.4 0.7 64.3 60.9 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.4 17.9 1.3 76.0 70.8 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.5 14.6 1.0 72.8 67.6 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.1 19.1 0.7 65.1 61.4 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------