***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.8 28.8 0.5 58.0 55.5 27.1 28.2 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.5 29.5 1.2 66.9 61.5 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.7 29.0 29.3 0.8 61.1 57.8 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.6 22.9 27.7 1.5 72.1 65.7 20.0 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.0 29.7 28.1 1.2 66.4 61.8 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 28.7 28.8 26.0 1.5 71.1 65.0 26.2 27.4 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.1 29.0 0.7 61.4 57.7 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.7 26.3 1.4 69.4 64.0 15.3 16.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.6 29.3 28.6 1.2 66.4 61.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 29.0 29.0 27.0 1.3 68.1 63.1 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.5 28.4 1.5 69.7 64.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 28.7 28.9 27.8 1.6 71.9 65.7 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 29.8 30.0 27.8 1.6 71.9 65.9 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.3 28.1 1.6 71.9 65.3 26.9 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.1 30.0 1.7 75.9 68.1 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.9 28.2 1.7 72.8 66.6 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.4 29.7 29.6 1.7 74.7 66.9 26.8 27.9 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.3 26.2 1.4 69.6 63.8 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 29.0 29.1 29.7 1.4 70.0 63.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.9 24.1 24.1 1.5 70.4 64.6 21.5 22.7 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 28.7 29.0 29.0 0.7 60.4 57.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.2 29.8 2.1 78.5 69.4 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.7 30.0 2.0 76.5 68.3 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 28.8 28.9 28.1 1.4 69.2 63.6 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.3 27.8 0.7 61.1 57.7 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.8 27.6 1.9 74.9 67.8 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.7 28.2 0.7 60.4 57.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 30.7 31.2 28.8 1.7 75.1 67.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.5 23.6 25.2 1.4 68.7 63.2 21.0 22.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.8 29.1 0.7 60.7 57.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------