***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.3 30.0 0.9 61.1 59.1 27.8 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.9 30.9 30.6 1.5 68.9 65.6 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.8 30.7 30.7 1.2 65.1 62.6 27.8 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 24.3 24.6 29.1 1.6 71.5 67.2 21.4 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 31.6 31.7 29.1 1.4 67.6 64.1 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 29.9 30.3 26.8 1.5 71.2 66.1 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 29.6 30.3 30.2 1.0 63.3 60.8 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 19.2 19.4 27.5 1.6 70.2 65.4 16.5 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 31.0 31.1 29.2 1.4 67.4 64.2 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 30.7 31.0 28.0 1.6 69.7 65.6 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 31.2 31.5 29.0 1.6 70.7 66.4 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 30.3 30.6 28.8 1.6 70.8 65.9 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.5 31.6 27.9 1.5 69.0 64.5 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.1 28.9 1.8 72.4 68.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 32.1 32.6 30.4 1.8 74.8 69.8 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 32.3 32.6 28.7 1.7 71.5 66.9 29.4 30.8 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.7 30.8 1.8 73.3 68.9 27.2 28.6 30.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 28.9 30.0 27.3 1.6 69.9 65.8 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.8 30.9 1.7 71.5 67.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.9 25.0 1.6 70.7 65.8 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.7 29.8 1.1 63.4 60.9 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.7 30.9 2.2 77.2 72.2 27.6 29.1 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.3 31.1 2.0 74.6 70.5 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 30.4 30.6 28.8 1.6 69.8 66.2 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 30.2 30.9 28.6 1.0 63.8 61.1 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 31.1 31.6 28.8 1.8 74.4 68.5 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.5 30.1 29.2 1.0 62.7 60.3 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 32.0 32.5 29.7 1.8 73.5 68.6 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 24.2 25.4 26.3 1.5 68.9 64.8 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.5 30.4 30.3 1.1 64.4 61.8 27.5 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------