***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.6 30.0 -0.2 47.1 47.6 27.7 28.8 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.1 30.6 0.3 54.4 53.0 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.8 30.7 0.2 53.0 52.0 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.1 29.1 0.6 58.9 57.0 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.8 29.1 0.4 56.3 54.9 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 29.6 28.9 27.0 0.7 60.3 58.3 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.4 30.2 -0.1 48.5 48.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.1 27.6 0.6 58.9 56.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.3 29.2 0.5 57.1 55.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.3 28.1 0.6 59.1 56.9 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.8 29.1 0.7 60.7 58.4 27.3 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.7 29.0 29.0 0.7 59.9 57.8 26.6 28.1 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.8 28.0 0.5 57.6 56.2 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.7 29.1 28.9 0.7 61.1 58.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.8 30.4 0.8 62.2 59.5 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.6 30.9 28.9 0.8 61.1 58.8 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.8 30.6 0.6 58.6 55.9 26.9 28.2 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.2 27.4 0.6 57.9 55.8 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.8 30.9 0.5 57.9 55.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.0 25.0 0.4 55.3 54.1 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.9 29.9 0.1 51.6 51.1 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.5 30.7 0.8 62.6 58.7 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.2 31.0 0.9 63.0 59.3 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.7 28.9 0.6 58.4 56.2 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.0 28.6 0.0 49.4 49.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.8 28.8 0.8 61.4 58.8 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 29.2 -0.1 47.8 48.1 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.4 30.8 29.7 0.8 62.2 59.6 28.5 29.9 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.4 26.3 0.4 55.2 53.9 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.6 30.4 0.0 50.1 49.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------