***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.7 29.1 -0.1 48.0 48.4 28.1 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.1 29.8 0.5 61.0 58.4 28.0 28.6 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.8 29.7 0.2 54.0 53.3 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 22.8 22.6 27.9 0.7 65.1 62.6 21.2 21.9 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.7 28.3 0.5 60.6 59.0 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.6 26.1 0.7 67.1 63.8 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.6 29.3 0.1 51.5 50.9 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.6 26.5 0.7 64.9 62.2 16.4 17.1 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.2 28.6 0.5 61.0 59.1 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.7 29.1 27.1 0.6 63.7 61.2 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 29.6 29.5 28.5 0.8 65.8 63.3 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.8 28.7 27.9 0.8 67.6 64.4 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 30.0 29.9 27.7 0.8 67.4 64.2 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 29.0 29.1 28.3 0.9 70.4 65.5 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 30.7 30.7 29.8 0.9 68.7 65.5 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.7 28.2 0.9 68.8 65.6 29.0 29.8 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.0 29.9 1.0 71.6 66.3 27.4 28.1 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.1 26.4 0.7 65.2 62.0 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.8 30.0 0.8 66.0 62.4 27.4 28.2 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 24.1 24.0 24.2 0.7 66.5 63.1 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.8 29.2 0.1 52.6 52.3 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.8 30.1 1.4 79.4 72.2 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.3 30.3 1.2 74.8 69.2 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.3 28.6 28.2 0.7 65.3 62.0 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.0 27.9 0.1 51.9 51.8 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.7 27.8 1.0 72.1 67.6 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.4 28.4 0.0 50.4 50.3 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.6 28.8 0.9 68.6 65.4 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.5 25.4 0.6 63.8 61.0 22.2 22.9 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.5 29.4 0.1 52.4 51.7 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------