***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 15.5 13.1 101.7 65.2 50.7 3.4 8.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.5 12.6 116.1 68.6 51.5 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.2 12.4 104.0 65.1 48.1 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.0 11.8 102.2 64.4 49.4 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.8 10.9 98.7 64.7 48.5 3.8 7.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 13.1 13.4 131.6 73.1 56.4 4.0 6.9 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.8 17.2 12.3 107.2 66.5 52.2 5.3 10.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.2 19.2 12.5 96.2 61.0 48.1 9.1 14.8 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.4 10.9 90.7 61.1 47.7 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.6 12.8 90.1 59.6 48.0 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.5 10.6 97.5 63.7 47.4 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 11.8 9.8 94.3 61.4 46.1 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.0 10.4 99.6 64.7 47.0 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.0 15.2 14.3 90.0 58.8 45.0 5.5 11.1 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.9 8.2 89.4 62.6 50.2 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.8 10.8 104.5 66.0 48.1 4.1 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.6 12.3 112.1 67.3 52.4 1.8 3.6 6.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.2 14.3 90.1 57.6 47.7 8.1 12.7 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.2 15.8 12.5 110.7 66.5 49.1 5.2 9.5 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.5 14.7 13.1 91.5 57.5 47.4 7.5 12.2 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.6 11.8 97.8 63.4 50.3 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.2 11.8 102.7 64.0 47.4 4.7 8.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.2 14.3 12.1 94.4 60.3 44.9 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.8 14.0 98.2 62.1 48.3 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.0 13.8 106.0 66.8 51.1 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.5 6.8 103.0 65.4 46.5 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.5 14.3 106.7 66.8 51.7 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.0 10.3 95.3 63.2 48.4 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.8 14.1 89.1 56.9 47.6 10.3 16.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.4 12.9 114.7 68.2 51.1 5.0 8.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------