***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 3.8 8.3 8.5 64.8 50.6 33.5 4.8 8.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 9.5 9.5 79.0 56.7 39.6 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.2 7.3 8.4 64.9 49.5 35.5 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.4 11.1 7.4 63.1 50.8 33.4 5.0 10.7 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 5.6 11.0 8.0 64.8 50.7 35.9 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.8 8.6 7.6 62.2 47.6 33.3 4.0 9.7 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.8 9.6 79.7 57.8 39.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 6.9 19.1 9.6 80.6 56.0 33.6 8.6 15.8 25.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 4.2 8.2 7.8 63.2 48.8 33.3 4.7 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 5.4 13.5 9.7 75.1 53.7 34.6 6.3 11.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.9 8.8 8.8 73.6 52.8 36.1 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 4.5 13.2 8.2 78.9 55.5 33.1 5.7 10.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.8 9.1 7.6 71.5 54.8 34.6 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.7 11.8 9.1 66.6 49.9 32.4 5.8 11.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.1 7.4 73.3 55.9 35.4 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.3 8.3 7.6 69.6 53.2 33.6 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.0 11.6 9.8 86.4 59.8 41.1 4.8 8.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.0 11.8 10.4 75.0 52.3 32.6 5.7 10.9 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 5.3 11.4 8.8 73.2 53.9 37.5 6.1 10.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 5.7 13.0 12.1 86.4 57.2 34.4 6.8 10.9 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.4 8.8 8.4 66.3 51.7 34.2 5.1 8.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.7 13.0 8.8 78.6 56.7 39.2 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.9 8.6 8.1 66.7 50.2 33.2 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 4.8 10.0 8.9 68.2 50.0 32.7 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.4 10.5 71.6 54.4 39.2 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.3 8.5 89.3 58.2 39.2 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 5.3 12.7 10.0 67.1 51.8 36.8 5.7 11.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 7.9 6.8 66.5 52.9 32.2 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 12.3 20.8 12.5 81.7 54.4 35.4 14.1 19.3 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.9 9.8 8.9 73.6 53.9 37.3 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------