***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 10.5 6.8 79.6 58.9 35.7 3.1 7.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.7 6.7 77.8 57.6 36.4 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 2.3 7.4 6.4 73.0 55.0 30.6 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 2.8 8.5 5.4 61.6 52.5 31.0 3.5 7.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.1 6.9 5.3 62.0 53.4 32.4 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.6 9.2 8.6 87.5 62.4 35.1 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.4 6.3 76.2 57.2 39.1 2.5 5.5 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 3.3 8.0 5.6 67.2 52.4 31.0 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.7 4.3 5.3 55.3 49.4 30.9 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 3.1 7.2 5.9 59.5 50.0 30.5 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.3 7.0 4.7 70.6 54.9 33.3 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.2 7.7 5.0 72.7 54.7 32.6 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.5 5.9 6.4 76.7 58.9 34.6 1.7 4.1 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.2 10.2 7.8 70.6 55.0 29.6 4.2 8.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.8 5.8 4.7 66.6 55.2 31.1 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.0 5.9 5.5 70.8 56.7 33.8 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.3 6.6 80.1 58.8 39.2 2.7 5.4 9.3 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.7 7.0 7.6 65.0 52.0 28.6 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.7 7.0 83.7 59.7 33.6 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 2.5 8.4 8.8 77.5 57.4 32.2 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.1 5.7 5.7 59.3 50.9 29.3 2.7 5.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.5 7.1 79.4 59.2 36.8 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.1 7.3 7.1 88.9 61.5 31.1 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.0 9.0 7.1 71.3 54.7 29.5 3.6 7.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.5 7.6 6.6 72.8 56.4 35.7 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 1.4 8.3 6.1 105.9 67.2 35.7 1.7 4.2 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.9 6.9 75.7 57.3 36.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.4 8.0 5.1 62.7 53.9 30.5 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.4 9.6 8.5 70.9 53.9 31.1 4.2 8.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.9 8.3 7.0 78.8 58.1 34.9 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------