***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.1 9.7 4.2 67.9 54.1 36.2 3.2 8.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.9 3.8 69.0 55.8 37.1 3.2 7.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.6 6.9 3.7 52.2 48.9 32.7 2.8 7.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.7 10.9 4.1 71.3 55.8 36.6 3.8 8.7 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.6 8.5 3.9 65.0 54.3 32.8 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.6 4.4 66.5 56.4 36.2 3.3 7.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.9 11.5 4.4 83.4 61.0 39.3 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.8 13.8 4.4 62.9 52.8 33.2 5.7 12.3 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.6 8.3 3.9 57.7 51.3 30.2 3.3 7.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 3.7 11.1 4.7 60.4 53.1 33.8 4.3 9.7 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.2 6.8 3.3 56.6 50.6 30.1 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.6 8.3 3.3 62.4 52.4 31.3 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.5 7.5 3.4 68.2 54.3 32.8 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.4 11.8 5.0 59.5 52.2 34.8 4.8 10.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.4 8.4 3.9 81.3 58.8 34.7 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.5 6.5 3.3 59.9 51.6 30.9 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.8 18.1 5.0 91.7 63.8 40.3 4.6 10.6 19.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.8 13.4 5.3 60.7 53.2 35.8 4.9 11.7 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.0 9.6 3.6 58.9 52.1 35.3 3.6 8.7 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.5 6.0 70.6 56.2 38.4 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.2 8.2 3.3 53.4 49.1 31.3 3.8 8.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.2 14.7 5.0 84.8 60.6 39.0 4.2 9.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.2 3.8 54.4 51.1 33.9 3.7 8.8 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.7 8.9 4.3 52.5 49.2 33.0 4.1 9.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.2 4.3 69.5 55.4 37.2 3.2 8.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.4 10.1 3.0 78.4 57.3 33.3 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.7 4.9 75.0 57.3 39.1 3.4 7.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 3.1 10.3 4.1 72.7 56.5 33.8 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.3 18.7 5.8 63.3 54.0 38.7 8.3 16.4 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.4 3.8 66.6 54.5 36.7 3.7 8.5 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------