***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 26.5 44.6 32.6 80.1 47.4 40.5 30.5 47.3 68.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 30.8 45.3 32.7 88.1 51.3 44.4 32.6 44.1 57.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 31.0 41.0 30.8 75.9 43.3 37.8 32.7 46.9 63.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 31.7 47.5 28.7 76.0 45.4 38.9 36.0 52.0 71.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 28.1 39.0 28.0 74.0 44.6 39.0 29.9 43.6 60.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 29.1 47.5 33.9 87.1 53.9 46.4 29.4 43.9 61.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 27.3 42.5 32.6 88.0 51.6 45.3 28.5 40.9 56.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 44.4 62.6 32.1 79.7 45.1 39.1 49.8 67.9 88.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.3 33.1 28.0 68.6 40.6 37.3 26.9 42.2 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 38.1 49.1 33.1 73.8 41.5 37.7 41.3 57.7 77.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 22.5 34.1 27.4 77.1 45.4 39.4 24.6 38.1 54.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 23.7 40.6 26.3 79.6 46.9 39.2 27.2 44.1 65.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 19.5 32.2 27.9 80.8 51.2 43.1 20.8 31.4 44.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 44.8 54.9 36.2 73.5 39.8 34.1 48.6 65.6 85.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 17.3 28.4 24.2 77.9 50.1 42.5 17.3 28.4 42.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 19.5 30.5 27.2 78.7 49.3 41.6 20.2 31.0 44.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 29.1 43.8 33.7 93.5 54.7 46.5 29.2 40.4 53.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 41.0 49.1 37.6 74.9 39.8 36.8 42.8 59.1 78.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 32.4 48.3 31.9 84.2 48.4 41.2 35.4 49.9 66.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 35.8 47.0 40.0 82.7 45.0 39.1 38.1 50.8 65.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 28.0 38.4 29.1 72.2 43.2 38.0 30.4 44.1 61.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 34.8 50.5 32.8 87.2 50.3 42.3 37.9 50.2 63.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 31.7 43.3 31.1 77.9 43.7 36.2 35.3 48.1 62.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 36.2 44.6 34.3 75.3 41.2 36.5 37.7 53.1 70.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 28.3 45.1 35.3 82.0 49.6 41.6 30.5 45.1 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 18.1 36.7 24.4 94.9 57.7 46.8 19.6 30.6 44.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 31.8 49.8 36.1 82.2 48.9 41.8 34.7 51.1 70.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 26.1 39.3 26.3 75.6 47.0 39.9 28.4 41.9 58.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 56.8 68.4 40.7 78.3 41.1 37.3 60.9 77.2 94.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 31.2 47.1 32.6 85.8 50.0 43.0 33.7 47.1 62.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------