***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 16.7 18.0 21.1 2.8 93.6 89.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.5 17.9 20.8 2.6 90.9 86.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 18.4 20.0 21.1 2.6 91.9 87.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 14.0 15.8 18.3 2.5 93.1 90.1 11.1 12.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 15.1 16.5 19.0 2.4 92.2 88.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 14.0 14.9 15.3 1.7 86.9 83.8 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 16.5 18.0 21.0 2.9 93.1 88.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 9.3 10.8 15.8 2.1 92.1 88.0 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 16.2 17.5 18.9 2.2 91.2 87.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 16.2 17.6 16.9 2.1 92.4 88.0 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 16.0 17.1 18.4 2.1 89.9 86.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 13.9 15.0 17.0 2.0 89.1 85.6 11.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.3 15.6 16.4 1.2 77.8 75.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 16.8 18.3 18.6 2.3 93.6 89.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 17.8 19.0 20.5 2.4 92.1 90.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 16.5 17.1 17.4 1.6 84.0 81.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 16.8 18.1 20.6 2.7 92.7 86.9 14.9 15.7 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 14.6 16.1 16.2 2.1 91.9 88.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 16.2 17.3 20.9 2.6 90.9 86.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 10.6 12.1 14.3 2.1 92.3 88.5 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 16.2 18.0 20.4 2.6 94.3 90.2 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 16.0 17.5 20.9 2.8 94.1 88.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.7 16.9 20.8 2.5 91.0 86.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 16.6 18.1 18.7 2.3 93.0 88.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.9 20.0 2.6 92.8 88.6 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.0 15.6 15.5 1.5 83.3 80.1 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 16.6 18.8 20.5 2.8 93.6 89.2 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 15.4 16.8 18.9 2.4 93.0 90.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 13.6 15.3 15.4 2.1 92.9 89.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.6 17.9 21.0 2.6 91.0 86.5 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------