***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 17.2 18.2 20.9 2.1 84.3 77.0 15.0 15.9 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 17.2 18.0 20.7 2.0 82.4 75.2 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 19.5 20.5 21.0 1.9 82.6 75.3 16.9 18.0 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.4 16.7 18.2 1.8 83.6 76.5 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.3 16.0 18.1 1.6 80.4 73.6 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.0 15.5 1.0 72.9 67.8 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.5 18.5 20.8 2.1 84.0 76.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 10.2 10.9 15.9 1.6 80.6 74.2 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.3 18.1 1.6 80.6 73.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.9 16.6 1.6 81.7 74.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.4 17.6 1.4 77.8 71.3 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.3 16.7 1.3 76.3 70.3 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.0 14.9 15.3 0.8 67.7 63.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 17.1 18.1 18.2 1.8 84.5 77.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.6 18.2 19.5 1.5 79.6 73.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 16.5 1.1 73.0 67.7 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.1 20.5 2.1 84.9 77.5 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.7 15.6 15.7 1.7 84.3 77.4 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.7 20.7 1.9 81.6 74.7 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 10.4 11.1 13.3 1.5 83.1 76.7 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.4 17.4 19.8 1.9 83.8 76.0 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.6 17.5 20.4 2.0 83.8 76.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.9 20.6 1.8 80.9 74.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.8 18.0 1.7 83.7 76.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.8 19.3 2.0 85.0 77.4 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.8 15.2 0.7 66.3 62.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 17.2 18.6 20.1 2.1 84.7 77.2 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.7 18.3 1.5 78.9 72.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 14.6 15.7 15.2 1.7 84.9 78.2 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.6 18.4 20.9 1.9 81.8 74.8 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------