***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.6 16.8 21.0 1.4 75.1 67.9 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.8 20.8 1.3 72.8 66.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.7 18.8 21.2 1.2 72.8 66.4 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.4 14.7 18.3 1.2 74.2 66.7 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.1 18.1 1.0 70.0 63.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.0 15.6 0.5 61.7 58.0 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.2 21.0 1.4 74.6 68.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.6 15.9 0.9 69.6 63.3 8.2 8.8 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.3 18.1 1.0 70.4 64.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 16.6 1.0 71.2 64.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.9 17.6 0.8 66.7 61.4 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.0 16.6 0.7 64.5 59.8 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.9 15.3 0.3 57.4 54.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.1 18.2 1.1 73.5 66.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.9 18.0 19.6 1.0 70.0 63.3 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 16.5 0.6 62.4 58.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.4 17.6 20.7 1.4 75.7 68.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.1 15.6 1.0 72.6 65.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.6 16.6 20.9 1.2 71.9 66.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.1 13.1 0.9 71.3 64.9 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.4 19.9 1.3 74.7 67.2 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.4 20.5 1.3 73.7 67.2 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.1 20.7 1.2 71.7 65.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.9 17.9 1.1 72.8 65.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.4 16.7 19.5 1.5 76.7 68.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.9 15.1 0.3 56.7 54.8 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.9 20.2 1.5 76.5 68.9 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.4 18.4 1.0 69.7 63.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 15.0 1.0 72.4 65.1 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.9 16.9 21.0 1.2 72.0 66.1 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------