***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 16.4 17.4 20.8 2.0 93.9 88.3 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 16.4 17.5 20.6 1.9 92.0 85.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 18.4 19.3 20.9 1.8 91.9 85.3 17.0 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 13.9 15.0 18.1 1.8 94.0 88.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 14.9 15.8 18.3 1.7 91.7 85.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 13.7 14.1 15.4 1.1 85.8 79.8 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 16.7 17.7 20.7 2.0 93.4 87.3 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 9.2 9.9 15.8 1.5 91.5 84.2 8.0 8.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.0 16.9 18.3 1.6 91.3 84.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.8 16.6 1.6 92.6 85.0 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.7 16.4 17.8 1.4 88.7 81.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 13.7 14.3 16.7 1.3 87.4 80.5 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.2 15.7 0.8 78.6 73.4 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.8 18.2 1.7 94.7 86.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 17.5 18.3 19.9 1.7 92.0 86.4 16.1 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 16.2 16.7 16.8 1.1 83.5 77.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 17.1 18.1 20.4 2.0 94.4 87.8 15.8 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.6 15.7 1.6 93.7 85.8 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.3 17.1 20.6 1.8 91.4 84.9 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 10.3 11.3 13.5 1.5 93.0 85.6 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 15.9 17.0 19.9 1.9 94.2 87.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 16.0 17.0 20.4 1.9 93.9 87.0 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 15.7 16.5 20.5 1.8 90.9 84.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.4 17.6 18.1 1.7 93.9 85.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 16.1 17.3 19.5 2.0 95.0 89.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.7 14.9 15.2 0.9 79.3 73.5 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 16.2 17.7 20.1 2.0 94.9 89.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 15.1 16.0 18.5 1.6 91.6 85.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.4 15.1 1.6 94.1 86.5 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 16.7 17.5 20.8 1.8 91.1 85.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------