***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 29.8 31.2 32.6 3.5 89.4 84.8 27.2 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 29.5 30.6 32.6 3.2 85.4 80.7 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 29.5 30.6 32.5 3.1 85.0 80.1 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 23.3 25.4 29.7 3.8 92.1 87.6 19.7 21.0 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 30.4 31.4 30.6 3.1 84.7 80.4 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 28.9 29.2 26.4 1.7 74.8 71.8 25.7 27.1 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 29.5 30.9 32.5 3.4 88.5 83.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.0 19.0 27.9 2.7 82.6 77.6 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.7 31.1 2.8 83.0 78.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 29.5 30.5 28.9 2.8 84.0 79.0 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.4 30.5 2.5 78.8 75.1 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 28.8 29.2 29.0 2.2 76.5 73.1 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.7 29.1 1.3 67.5 65.8 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.1 30.5 31.0 3.3 89.0 81.7 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 31.1 32.2 32.6 3.2 86.8 83.9 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.8 29.4 1.8 72.3 69.9 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.0 30.5 32.5 3.5 89.0 83.1 26.3 27.4 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 28.5 29.7 28.1 3.0 85.7 79.8 25.8 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 29.1 30.2 32.6 3.2 85.3 80.3 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 24.4 26.0 26.1 3.1 87.0 80.8 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 29.8 31.2 32.4 3.4 87.6 82.5 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 29.6 31.4 32.5 3.6 90.8 83.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.3 32.5 3.1 84.8 79.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 28.8 29.9 30.8 3.1 86.4 80.4 26.3 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 30.0 31.6 31.5 3.5 89.9 85.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.6 28.0 1.6 70.8 68.4 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 29.3 31.0 32.0 3.6 91.0 86.2 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 31.1 32.4 30.6 3.2 87.5 83.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 24.0 25.5 27.3 3.1 86.9 80.5 21.0 22.3 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 29.3 30.4 32.5 3.1 84.9 80.5 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------