***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 30.0 30.4 31.3 2.0 76.3 71.1 27.2 28.4 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.8 30.0 31.2 1.7 72.3 68.2 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 29.8 29.9 31.3 1.6 71.2 66.6 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 23.0 23.8 28.8 2.2 79.9 72.9 20.3 21.5 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.5 29.3 1.6 71.8 66.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.3 25.8 0.7 61.5 59.0 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.3 31.1 1.9 75.9 70.9 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.8 17.8 27.1 1.3 68.0 63.6 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.8 29.6 1.4 69.6 65.1 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.4 27.8 1.4 69.7 64.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 28.8 29.4 29.1 1.1 64.4 61.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.5 28.4 1.0 63.4 60.5 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.2 27.9 0.4 56.0 55.2 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.6 29.3 1.7 72.9 67.3 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.1 30.8 1.6 73.1 67.8 28.4 29.5 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.3 28.4 0.7 60.5 58.5 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.9 31.0 2.0 76.7 71.1 26.9 28.0 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.4 28.7 27.0 1.6 71.7 65.9 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.4 31.2 1.6 71.3 67.3 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 24.1 24.4 24.8 1.6 71.3 65.7 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.3 30.8 1.8 74.7 68.8 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.2 31.0 2.0 76.4 70.6 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.4 31.2 1.6 69.9 66.0 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.4 29.3 1.7 72.2 66.6 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 30.3 30.8 29.9 2.1 78.0 72.0 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.0 27.7 0.6 57.8 56.6 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 29.8 30.3 30.5 2.1 78.4 72.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.3 29.4 1.7 74.3 68.7 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 23.8 24.1 26.0 1.6 71.4 65.5 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.7 31.1 1.6 71.1 67.2 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------