***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 31.2 31.9 32.0 2.2 77.3 71.4 28.0 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.8 31.5 31.8 2.1 75.8 70.0 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.6 32.1 2.0 74.8 69.0 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.6 30.0 2.2 79.1 72.7 21.7 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 31.9 32.4 30.0 1.8 73.5 67.7 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.8 26.5 0.9 63.9 60.4 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.7 31.8 2.2 78.5 72.1 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 19.4 19.6 28.1 1.6 70.1 65.1 16.9 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 31.3 31.7 30.0 1.8 73.0 67.3 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 31.0 31.4 28.7 1.8 72.9 67.1 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 30.3 31.4 29.5 1.4 68.1 63.4 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 29.4 30.3 29.5 1.3 66.3 62.2 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 30.6 31.3 28.2 1.0 63.4 59.7 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.5 29.6 2.1 76.9 69.7 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 32.2 32.6 31.0 1.8 73.8 68.8 29.5 30.8 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 31.3 32.3 29.0 1.2 66.6 62.2 29.6 31.0 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.4 31.8 2.5 81.0 74.0 27.2 28.6 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.6 28.1 2.1 75.9 69.0 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 30.4 31.0 31.9 2.0 74.3 68.8 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 25.8 26.3 25.5 1.9 74.1 68.0 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 31.4 32.0 31.3 2.1 77.1 70.6 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.8 31.7 2.4 79.3 72.7 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 30.6 31.0 31.8 1.9 73.2 67.8 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 30.6 31.2 29.7 2.1 76.3 69.5 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 31.7 32.7 30.4 2.4 80.5 74.0 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 30.3 30.6 28.8 0.7 60.1 57.0 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 30.9 31.8 31.1 2.3 80.0 73.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 32.1 32.6 30.1 1.8 74.5 69.1 29.5 30.7 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 25.3 26.0 26.9 2.0 75.3 68.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 30.6 31.2 31.7 2.0 74.3 68.9 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------