***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.3 32.6 1.5 68.5 64.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.5 30.1 32.3 1.2 65.3 62.3 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.0 32.7 1.3 65.6 62.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.1 30.7 1.8 72.8 67.9 20.8 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 30.9 30.6 30.6 1.3 66.4 63.1 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.6 27.0 0.6 58.7 57.1 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.1 32.3 1.4 67.9 64.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.6 18.3 28.7 1.0 63.4 60.9 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 30.2 29.9 30.6 1.2 65.2 62.1 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 30.0 29.7 29.3 1.2 65.3 62.0 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 30.3 29.7 30.1 0.8 61.0 59.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.8 30.1 0.8 59.8 58.5 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.6 28.8 0.5 57.0 56.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.0 29.8 30.2 1.4 67.8 63.3 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.2 31.6 1.4 68.5 64.9 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.6 29.6 0.7 59.7 58.2 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.0 32.2 1.6 69.9 65.2 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.0 28.7 1.4 68.4 63.9 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 29.9 29.5 32.5 1.2 64.3 61.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 24.9 25.0 26.1 1.4 68.6 64.3 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.3 31.9 1.5 68.9 64.6 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.2 32.1 1.5 68.4 64.1 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.9 29.5 32.4 1.1 64.0 61.1 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.6 30.3 1.4 68.0 63.6 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.0 31.0 1.8 72.7 67.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.0 29.4 0.4 55.1 54.9 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.2 30.3 31.7 1.7 71.5 66.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.3 31.3 30.8 1.4 68.7 65.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.5 24.5 27.5 1.5 68.8 64.1 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.2 29.8 32.3 1.1 64.3 61.6 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------