***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.2 32.1 2.3 86.1 80.3 28.1 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.2 32.0 2.0 82.8 77.4 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.1 32.1 2.0 81.9 76.2 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 23.0 24.1 29.8 2.5 89.7 83.3 21.2 21.9 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 30.2 30.9 30.1 1.9 82.4 76.4 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 28.6 28.8 26.4 1.0 70.7 66.7 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.3 31.9 2.2 86.3 80.7 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.3 27.9 1.7 79.1 73.4 16.4 17.1 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 29.6 30.2 30.3 1.8 80.6 74.6 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 29.4 30.0 28.7 1.8 81.2 75.0 27.7 28.4 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 29.6 30.0 29.8 1.4 75.2 70.2 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.0 29.3 1.3 73.3 68.6 27.2 28.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 29.9 29.8 28.5 0.8 65.8 62.5 28.4 29.1 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 29.2 29.9 30.0 2.1 85.8 78.3 27.7 28.3 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.4 31.5 2.0 83.4 77.9 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 30.7 30.8 29.1 1.1 70.9 66.6 29.0 29.8 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.1 30.0 31.9 2.4 88.5 82.2 27.4 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 28.4 29.0 28.0 2.0 84.5 77.4 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 29.1 29.6 32.1 2.0 81.5 76.2 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 24.3 24.9 25.6 2.0 84.3 77.8 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.6 31.6 2.2 85.9 79.2 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 29.5 30.3 31.8 2.4 87.8 81.3 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 29.2 29.6 32.0 1.9 80.3 75.0 27.7 28.3 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 29.0 29.6 30.0 2.1 84.8 77.7 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 30.1 31.1 30.7 2.4 88.9 82.7 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.4 28.5 0.8 65.8 62.5 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 29.4 30.3 31.3 2.4 88.7 82.8 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.4 30.2 2.0 84.4 78.5 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 23.9 24.6 27.0 2.0 85.1 77.8 22.2 22.9 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.9 31.9 1.9 81.1 76.1 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------