***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 11.3 9.5 81.7 59.7 35.5 3.1 7.4 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.6 8.2 79.8 59.6 38.3 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 13.4 10.6 93.3 64.1 37.6 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.5 11.1 9.7 86.5 60.0 39.7 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.5 8.7 82.6 59.1 35.9 3.0 6.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.5 10.4 93.8 62.0 44.5 4.0 7.4 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.7 7.8 78.1 59.3 40.1 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.4 14.3 9.6 64.4 50.6 36.4 8.2 14.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.6 11.7 9.4 75.0 56.5 33.0 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.8 11.5 10.6 68.7 52.7 34.4 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.6 8.1 81.6 58.4 33.6 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.8 7.3 68.2 53.0 36.7 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.6 7.4 80.6 58.9 38.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.7 12.6 11.7 77.5 57.8 35.5 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.9 8.0 7.7 94.9 64.7 37.9 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.4 8.9 93.4 62.7 39.2 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.1 6.8 69.2 55.5 38.2 1.6 3.4 6.0 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 6.5 12.0 11.9 68.0 50.7 35.3 7.6 11.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.2 14.3 8.9 80.5 59.9 37.2 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.9 10.2 10.8 64.3 47.2 35.8 6.3 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.2 13.2 10.0 83.9 60.3 35.0 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.2 10.3 7.4 70.6 56.5 36.7 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.3 12.1 10.2 85.3 61.6 37.1 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.4 13.5 11.7 83.6 59.1 35.2 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.5 9.8 9.4 79.7 58.7 36.3 3.7 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.8 5.8 83.0 59.3 36.9 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.2 9.4 79.7 58.7 36.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.5 9.5 9.1 88.9 61.4 38.5 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 9.2 16.4 11.3 68.0 49.9 35.9 10.1 16.4 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.9 9.1 88.3 62.3 39.1 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------