***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.9 7.6 86.2 61.1 40.0 2.9 6.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.3 8.3 8.2 98.5 65.2 40.8 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.1 8.6 95.3 64.1 43.2 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 14.3 8.8 106.3 67.4 44.0 4.1 8.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.8 13.6 9.6 117.1 70.1 44.9 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.4 13.2 10.8 116.4 70.2 49.4 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.6 10.4 7.8 97.4 64.5 40.2 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 18.1 13.1 131.6 73.4 50.9 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.3 10.3 9.5 104.7 66.5 43.2 2.3 5.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 18.6 13.0 121.7 71.0 48.2 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 13.2 9.2 123.3 71.6 45.6 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 12.9 9.6 128.1 72.9 48.3 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.4 10.8 9.1 116.8 70.5 48.5 1.8 4.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.6 22.0 14.5 118.7 70.7 49.1 5.3 10.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.8 5.6 79.7 59.6 38.9 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.4 8.5 113.5 69.5 44.4 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.8 13.2 8.6 101.7 65.8 41.3 3.8 7.6 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 14.0 15.6 118.9 70.5 49.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 12.1 8.9 102.1 66.3 42.0 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 12.5 15.4 120.2 70.5 53.7 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.3 10.0 8.5 101.5 65.5 41.3 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.0 14.0 9.5 100.2 65.6 42.7 5.0 8.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.5 9.9 110.2 68.4 44.1 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.1 17.6 13.5 118.2 70.3 48.2 3.8 8.4 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.7 9.6 104.1 66.7 43.0 3.0 6.8 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.6 12.5 7.7 124.8 72.2 50.0 2.1 5.0 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.1 8.3 88.0 61.8 41.2 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 10.4 7.5 96.9 64.8 42.3 2.3 5.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 18.3 16.7 117.6 69.9 51.9 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.9 11.0 8.2 95.2 64.3 41.4 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------