***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.2 16.4 7.0 115.6 70.3 40.0 3.2 7.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.1 22.4 8.5 140.9 75.8 43.2 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.9 12.9 6.1 90.8 62.5 38.4 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.8 5.6 81.5 60.5 39.4 3.3 7.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.9 5.9 88.1 62.9 40.5 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.8 8.1 97.6 65.1 44.6 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.9 15.1 8.3 131.7 73.9 42.8 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 22.4 9.6 110.3 68.6 49.5 5.6 11.6 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.6 11.5 6.2 83.6 61.7 40.8 2.9 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.3 9.5 103.7 67.1 46.9 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.3 6.3 102.0 66.4 43.1 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.9 16.1 6.6 103.2 66.7 44.7 3.4 8.0 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.3 11.4 6.2 96.9 65.0 43.5 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.0 20.3 10.7 112.0 69.2 43.5 4.2 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 10.5 5.4 99.3 65.9 38.9 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.5 6.2 99.2 65.8 43.2 3.3 6.2 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 3.7 20.4 8.4 127.9 73.2 40.1 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 23.8 11.7 108.9 68.4 48.1 4.4 10.8 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.3 21.3 7.9 129.4 72.8 42.7 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 15.6 12.6 109.6 67.8 50.3 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.3 12.3 5.4 79.1 60.0 37.9 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.1 18.6 9.1 132.1 74.0 43.5 3.5 7.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.7 17.1 7.3 108.6 68.0 41.4 3.4 8.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.2 14.2 8.7 93.7 63.8 42.9 4.1 8.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.9 12.7 6.6 102.4 66.7 39.8 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.2 4.9 89.8 63.2 41.7 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.3 16.7 7.3 114.3 70.0 40.5 3.3 7.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.9 6.0 91.0 63.6 40.6 3.3 7.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 29.9 12.6 111.3 68.8 49.3 7.6 15.4 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.0 19.0 8.3 133.3 73.9 42.5 3.1 7.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------