***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 27.9 56.0 35.3 92.1 58.4 44.5 28.5 45.3 67.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 28.4 51.4 34.5 98.5 60.9 48.9 29.3 42.0 56.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 31.9 55.3 37.1 94.9 58.8 46.0 32.2 46.5 63.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 60.1 65.4 37.9 100.7 61.9 50.5 35.3 51.4 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 50.2 53.1 36.9 100.5 61.0 47.7 28.2 42.2 59.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 52.3 54.7 41.7 100.3 60.3 50.6 29.4 43.9 61.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 24.2 44.5 32.9 93.5 58.7 48.1 24.5 36.9 52.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 78.1 81.4 46.6 101.7 60.7 49.7 47.6 67.0 89.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.3 47.8 37.5 92.3 56.6 44.3 25.8 41.0 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 64.5 65.2 47.9 99.1 59.5 47.8 37.7 54.5 74.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 44.7 48.3 36.4 102.5 61.7 48.9 22.8 36.2 53.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 52.9 56.5 35.2 100.3 61.0 49.4 24.8 41.9 64.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 37.6 40.7 33.1 98.5 60.6 50.4 21.0 32.2 45.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 71.7 75.2 51.8 100.4 60.7 50.5 44.7 62.3 82.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 35.1 39.8 32.1 103.8 64.0 50.9 16.9 28.0 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 36.5 40.3 34.6 103.0 62.4 50.9 19.7 30.5 43.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.4 44.9 32.7 92.6 57.5 46.6 27.4 39.2 53.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 66.8 68.6 55.9 100.3 59.4 48.9 41.4 57.7 77.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 33.8 60.7 36.1 99.1 61.0 48.6 34.6 49.5 66.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.7 58.5 56.5 102.0 59.5 51.0 37.0 50.1 64.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 52.7 51.6 35.3 92.3 57.6 44.1 29.9 44.1 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 35.6 55.6 35.5 94.0 58.1 47.1 36.6 48.8 63.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 52.3 53.7 38.4 98.0 60.2 48.5 32.0 44.8 59.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 59.3 61.9 48.9 100.5 60.5 48.9 35.8 50.9 68.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 29.5 54.0 38.3 95.6 59.3 45.9 29.4 44.2 62.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 37.1 41.7 28.5 102.5 62.5 52.5 20.0 31.3 45.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 30.6 56.6 37.4 92.3 57.8 45.1 31.3 47.5 67.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 47.5 52.3 36.0 102.4 62.8 51.1 26.7 39.9 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 85.2 87.9 58.9 101.5 59.5 50.3 59.1 76.8 96.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 28.4 53.9 35.6 98.8 61.2 48.9 29.1 42.9 59.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------