***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.8 20.0 1.6 79.3 76.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.4 20.5 2.2 87.0 83.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.4 20.0 1.5 77.4 74.8 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.3 17.4 1.0 70.2 67.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.4 17.3 0.7 65.3 62.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.1 14.6 0.4 59.7 57.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 16.5 17.3 20.9 2.5 88.8 85.9 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 8.6 8.6 15.0 0.8 67.8 64.9 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.8 17.8 0.9 69.4 67.0 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 15.6 15.8 16.0 0.9 69.7 66.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.2 16.5 0.5 61.5 59.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.1 15.7 0.6 62.8 60.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 15.2 0.0 50.8 50.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.5 17.7 1.0 71.6 68.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.2 17.3 19.2 0.9 69.3 67.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.4 16.1 0.3 55.9 54.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 16.8 17.5 20.0 2.2 86.2 82.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.3 14.0 15.1 0.8 67.6 65.1 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 16.1 16.9 20.4 2.2 86.5 83.5 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.3 10.0 12.9 0.8 68.1 65.5 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.7 19.3 1.0 70.6 68.4 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 16.0 16.9 20.4 2.4 88.7 85.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.3 20.2 2.1 85.3 82.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 17.5 1.0 71.6 68.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 15.7 15.9 18.6 1.0 68.9 66.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 13.9 13.9 14.7 0.3 55.4 54.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.4 19.2 1.3 75.5 72.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.8 14.8 17.9 0.8 67.6 65.0 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 12.9 13.2 14.5 1.0 72.0 69.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.5 17.2 20.7 2.2 86.1 83.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------