***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 16.9 17.5 20.7 1.4 76.3 68.2 15.0 16.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.9 18.0 21.0 1.9 83.4 73.0 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 19.2 19.6 20.4 1.2 74.3 66.3 16.9 18.0 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.5 18.0 0.4 59.8 55.9 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.8 17.6 0.6 63.2 58.4 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.4 15.7 0.5 60.9 57.9 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 17.2 18.4 21.2 2.0 84.2 73.7 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.2 15.9 0.9 70.9 65.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.5 18.1 0.9 69.6 63.3 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.2 16.4 0.9 69.3 63.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.7 17.1 0.7 66.5 60.8 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.9 14.2 17.1 1.1 73.1 66.3 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.0 16.3 0.8 68.2 63.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.9 17.3 18.2 1.2 75.1 67.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.2 19.0 0.6 63.9 59.6 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 16.9 0.6 63.0 58.9 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.7 18.4 20.1 1.5 78.9 69.2 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.7 15.9 1.0 72.0 65.1 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.7 20.8 1.8 82.5 72.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.3 13.8 0.8 67.2 61.9 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.3 19.4 0.9 69.5 63.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.4 17.1 20.0 1.5 79.6 70.0 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.2 17.0 20.4 1.7 81.9 72.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.7 17.1 18.0 1.1 73.2 65.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.7 18.9 1.2 73.3 66.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.1 16.5 0.9 70.2 64.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.8 17.7 19.9 1.5 78.9 70.3 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.5 18.3 0.4 58.4 55.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.6 15.2 1.1 72.8 65.6 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 17.3 18.4 21.2 1.8 82.5 72.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------