***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.3 16.9 20.4 1.4 85.8 78.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 16.5 17.7 20.9 2.0 93.2 86.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.3 18.8 20.2 1.2 82.7 76.0 17.0 17.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.6 17.6 0.5 64.8 60.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.6 17.3 0.5 66.5 62.1 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 0.4 63.3 60.5 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 16.7 17.7 21.1 2.1 93.8 87.4 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.3 15.6 0.9 78.0 71.1 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.1 17.9 0.8 75.1 69.1 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 16.2 0.8 75.9 69.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.5 16.8 0.5 68.2 63.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.8 16.6 0.8 75.9 69.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.7 15.7 0.4 64.5 61.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.0 18.0 1.1 81.8 74.6 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.2 18.9 0.6 67.8 63.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.8 16.5 0.3 61.3 58.3 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 17.1 17.9 20.1 1.7 90.4 83.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 14.2 14.6 15.6 0.9 77.9 70.7 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 16.3 17.2 20.7 1.8 92.4 85.6 15.0 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.4 13.6 0.8 76.2 69.7 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 19.3 0.9 76.6 70.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.8 20.1 1.7 91.5 84.7 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 15.7 16.5 20.3 1.7 91.2 84.6 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.7 17.8 1.0 79.7 72.3 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.3 18.7 1.0 79.0 72.9 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 15.8 0.5 67.8 63.7 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.9 19.6 1.4 86.2 79.2 14.4 15.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.6 18.0 0.4 61.5 58.6 13.7 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.6 14.9 1.0 80.6 73.2 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.7 17.6 21.0 1.9 92.0 85.4 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------