***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.5 31.6 2.8 82.9 79.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 29.8 31.3 33.1 4.2 90.4 87.5 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.2 31.8 2.8 81.7 78.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 21.3 22.2 28.3 1.3 67.1 65.0 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 29.6 29.5 28.9 1.2 66.2 64.4 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.2 25.3 0.1 52.2 51.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 29.7 31.2 33.0 4.2 90.3 87.5 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.5 27.0 1.4 69.0 66.9 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.4 29.6 30.2 1.9 74.3 71.6 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.3 28.2 1.7 72.6 70.2 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 28.3 29.0 28.4 1.1 64.6 63.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 28.4 28.4 28.0 1.3 68.7 66.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 28.6 28.9 27.5 0.7 59.6 58.4 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.0 29.7 30.0 2.7 81.1 78.3 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.5 30.8 1.7 72.4 69.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 29.3 29.7 28.1 0.8 61.4 60.0 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 29.2 30.6 32.3 3.9 89.0 86.1 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.1 28.4 27.2 1.8 72.9 70.7 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 29.3 30.8 32.9 4.1 90.2 87.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 23.7 23.7 24.6 1.1 65.8 64.4 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.6 31.1 1.9 74.1 71.5 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 29.8 31.3 32.3 4.0 90.5 87.5 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 29.5 30.8 32.5 3.9 89.6 86.6 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 28.6 29.1 29.6 2.3 77.7 75.0 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 29.5 29.9 29.9 2.0 75.2 72.3 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 28.3 28.6 27.0 0.7 59.7 58.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.1 29.9 30.9 2.7 81.9 78.6 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 29.4 30.1 29.2 1.1 64.6 62.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.6 23.8 26.3 1.7 72.2 70.1 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 29.6 30.9 32.9 3.8 88.9 85.9 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------