***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 30.4 32.3 32.9 3.6 91.0 85.0 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 30.5 32.9 34.0 4.6 94.8 89.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 30.5 32.3 33.0 3.5 90.6 84.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.2 23.9 30.2 2.1 78.8 73.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.7 30.4 2.4 81.7 75.7 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.3 27.2 1.5 73.2 68.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 30.4 32.7 33.7 4.4 94.4 88.7 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.3 19.7 29.1 2.9 87.5 80.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 30.3 31.7 31.1 2.9 86.3 79.8 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 29.9 31.3 29.7 2.9 87.3 80.5 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 30.2 31.3 29.9 2.5 83.2 76.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.8 30.2 2.9 86.5 79.8 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.2 29.1 2.2 80.2 74.6 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 30.0 31.9 31.2 3.7 92.2 85.7 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 31.2 32.1 31.0 2.4 81.8 76.2 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.2 31.8 29.3 1.9 77.3 72.0 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 30.0 32.2 33.3 4.3 93.5 88.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 29.0 30.6 29.2 3.2 88.8 81.7 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 29.9 32.3 34.0 4.5 94.8 89.4 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.6 25.8 26.8 2.8 86.0 79.2 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 30.3 31.7 31.9 2.9 86.5 80.3 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 30.4 32.7 33.2 4.4 94.2 88.8 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 30.1 32.5 33.4 4.4 94.6 89.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 29.7 31.5 31.0 3.4 90.3 83.5 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 30.6 32.0 30.8 3.0 87.3 81.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 30.0 30.7 29.5 2.4 81.7 75.9 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 30.2 32.0 32.0 3.6 91.3 85.2 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.6 30.4 1.9 76.5 71.5 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 24.4 26.0 28.1 3.1 88.6 81.3 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 30.3 32.7 33.9 4.4 94.3 88.7 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------