***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 30.8 30.9 32.8 1.6 71.4 65.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.7 31.2 33.3 1.8 74.2 67.1 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.6 32.7 1.5 69.4 64.0 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.0 30.4 0.5 58.0 55.4 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 30.1 30.3 30.3 0.8 60.7 57.2 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.6 29.1 27.8 0.8 62.6 57.6 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.6 31.0 33.1 1.9 75.1 67.5 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.9 18.9 28.9 1.3 68.9 62.1 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.2 30.8 1.1 65.2 60.3 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.3 30.2 29.5 1.2 67.0 61.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.6 30.1 29.9 0.9 63.3 58.8 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 29.9 29.9 30.1 1.3 68.9 62.3 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.5 29.3 1.0 65.3 59.6 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.2 30.4 30.7 1.5 70.8 64.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.5 30.9 31.1 0.8 61.7 57.9 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.6 30.8 29.6 0.7 59.9 56.2 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.4 32.7 1.6 71.8 65.1 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.3 28.8 1.4 68.5 62.0 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.6 33.3 1.8 73.9 67.1 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 25.0 26.6 1.1 66.4 60.1 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.5 30.3 31.8 1.1 65.2 60.6 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.8 32.6 1.6 71.6 65.4 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.6 32.9 1.8 74.2 67.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 29.9 30.0 30.6 1.5 69.7 63.4 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 31.0 30.8 30.8 1.2 67.2 62.1 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.4 30.2 29.6 1.1 67.3 61.0 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.6 30.7 31.9 1.6 72.4 65.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.4 30.6 0.4 56.8 54.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 24.7 27.8 1.3 68.4 61.6 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.0 33.4 1.8 74.0 67.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------