***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 29.8 30.7 32.5 2.6 90.8 85.1 28.1 28.8 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 29.9 31.4 33.4 3.4 95.3 90.5 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 29.9 30.9 32.5 2.5 89.8 84.2 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 22.8 23.1 29.8 1.3 75.0 70.4 21.2 22.0 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.7 29.9 1.5 78.0 72.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.8 27.0 0.9 69.6 65.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 29.8 31.3 33.2 3.3 95.3 90.4 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.1 18.8 28.5 1.9 86.0 79.1 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.5 30.7 1.9 84.9 78.7 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 29.6 30.4 29.2 2.0 85.8 79.1 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.8 30.3 29.5 1.5 79.7 73.8 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 29.1 29.8 29.6 1.9 85.2 78.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.4 28.8 1.4 77.2 71.6 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 29.5 30.5 30.6 2.6 91.3 85.2 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.2 31.0 1.6 79.3 74.4 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 30.7 31.0 29.1 1.2 73.6 68.7 29.0 29.8 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 29.4 30.7 32.7 3.1 94.2 89.0 27.5 28.2 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 28.5 29.3 28.4 2.1 87.0 80.0 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 29.4 30.9 33.3 3.3 95.2 90.3 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 24.3 24.9 26.1 1.7 83.2 76.3 22.7 23.4 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 29.8 30.6 31.6 2.0 84.6 78.7 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.7 31.1 32.6 3.2 94.9 89.8 27.9 28.6 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 29.5 31.0 32.9 3.2 94.9 90.1 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 29.1 30.1 30.4 2.4 89.3 82.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.1 30.9 30.6 2.1 85.6 79.8 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.0 28.9 1.4 78.5 73.0 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 29.6 30.6 31.6 2.6 91.1 85.2 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 30.6 30.8 30.1 1.1 72.3 68.2 29.1 29.8 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.0 24.8 27.4 2.1 86.9 79.6 22.2 23.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 29.7 31.2 33.3 3.2 94.5 89.6 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------