***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.4 16.2 21.6 16.0 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.2 14.3 18.0 13.2 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 2.8 1.8 2.1 14.6 18.7 14.0 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.8 3.9 34.6 33.4 26.6 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 3.2 3.1 3.2 27.9 26.3 20.9 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.1 6.2 5.2 50.9 43.1 33.6 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 1.2 1.0 2.3 14.5 16.6 12.2 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 8.2 10.4 4.1 37.1 33.8 26.9 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 3.3 3.2 3.0 24.5 25.0 19.3 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 4.7 4.9 3.4 25.9 26.3 20.2 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 3.4 3.7 2.5 26.7 26.8 21.7 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 4.2 5.9 3.5 40.5 36.7 29.2 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 3.2 4.6 3.6 42.9 36.3 27.9 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 4.1 2.6 2.0 11.9 14.6 11.5 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.2 2.5 3.3 32.2 31.9 26.2 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 4.0 5.0 3.1 35.9 32.7 25.6 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 0.9 0.9 2.3 14.8 16.8 11.5 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 6.2 6.5 4.0 27.0 25.6 19.8 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.1 14.0 18.3 13.4 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.8 4.7 34.7 28.0 23.8 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 3.2 2.7 2.6 19.9 22.4 17.2 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 2.0 1.6 2.2 14.2 17.1 11.7 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 2.7 1.8 1.9 12.5 17.0 12.5 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 3.6 3.2 2.8 18.5 20.2 15.1 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.1 3.7 24.3 21.8 18.4 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.6 4.3 4.5 51.8 41.1 33.3 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.1 18.6 20.4 16.0 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.9 3.4 3.5 35.1 33.4 26.7 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 9.5 9.8 4.0 27.7 24.1 19.2 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 1.3 1.2 2.2 14.6 19.2 14.0 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------