***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 3.3 4.3 1.7 25.6 29.5 17.8 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.9 4.4 2.5 28.7 32.8 20.3 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 2.8 4.2 2.1 28.5 33.1 18.4 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 3.2 7.7 2.8 46.6 43.9 18.3 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 3.7 7.0 3.0 44.3 40.7 17.8 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 2.1 5.1 4.3 40.0 39.9 18.9 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.4 27.0 31.6 19.8 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 4.4 6.6 3.2 34.2 33.3 18.7 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 2.7 5.9 3.3 46.0 42.6 17.5 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 3.1 5.4 3.5 38.8 37.3 18.8 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 1.9 3.6 2.3 37.4 37.4 18.6 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.8 28.9 29.4 14.8 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 1.4 2.2 2.3 32.2 32.6 16.8 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 3.3 4.2 3.0 29.0 32.4 21.3 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.8 4.3 2.5 46.0 44.1 19.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 1.2 1.9 1.9 30.3 31.0 15.5 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 3.2 4.5 2.3 26.4 31.9 19.7 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 3.8 5.9 4.2 37.1 35.6 19.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 3.4 4.8 2.3 29.2 33.3 20.0 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 3.5 6.2 5.6 44.5 38.5 23.3 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 2.6 5.4 2.5 42.0 40.3 16.0 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.6 5.4 2.7 31.8 35.5 21.3 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 3.2 3.9 2.1 28.2 32.2 19.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 3.5 5.1 3.0 31.2 33.9 18.9 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 3.4 5.2 2.3 31.6 34.3 18.3 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 1.8 3.7 2.3 44.6 40.0 17.6 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.7 2.0 24.7 28.7 17.7 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 2.5 5.3 2.4 43.3 41.2 15.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 5.6 8.1 4.3 37.0 34.9 19.4 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 3.3 4.6 2.4 28.1 33.1 20.4 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------