***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 3.2 10.0 4.0 67.3 53.9 32.5 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.1 6.2 4.7 64.2 52.8 33.0 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.6 10.1 4.8 72.8 55.9 35.2 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.6 18.2 6.6 104.9 67.5 39.8 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.6 11.8 6.9 98.2 66.3 40.1 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.8 10.0 92.6 65.0 41.1 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.0 7.7 4.4 60.0 51.3 32.0 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.4 15.9 8.9 97.0 64.9 40.5 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.5 11.1 6.8 91.5 64.4 37.5 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.1 18.9 9.0 96.8 65.1 40.5 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.1 12.3 6.6 103.2 67.4 41.8 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.8 12.6 6.3 98.7 65.4 37.8 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.4 6.8 93.0 64.1 38.7 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.8 12.6 7.3 70.2 55.0 35.3 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.2 9.2 5.5 111.7 69.1 39.5 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.4 6.2 96.5 65.2 39.6 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 3.4 8.0 4.4 53.5 49.0 31.4 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.7 14.0 9.8 83.5 60.1 38.3 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.6 10.1 4.7 66.5 53.3 33.2 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.0 10.7 90.8 62.9 42.6 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.0 12.0 5.5 92.5 63.6 35.5 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 3.9 8.5 4.5 55.6 48.6 32.2 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.1 8.6 4.8 68.2 53.8 33.3 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.4 11.3 7.5 74.6 56.9 36.8 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.2 13.2 6.1 89.3 63.2 37.4 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 13.2 5.6 108.2 67.2 39.1 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.0 5.2 71.0 56.4 34.3 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 15.1 6.2 108.9 68.3 39.2 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 4.6 16.4 9.9 82.3 59.8 37.9 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.9 10.2 4.5 66.1 53.2 33.2 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------