***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 2.6 7.4 2.9 53.7 50.5 26.2 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.5 8.0 2.7 62.4 52.0 25.4 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.3 6.8 2.8 55.6 50.5 26.9 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.4 9.7 3.4 81.0 60.4 29.1 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 2.3 9.3 3.8 77.8 60.4 29.8 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.6 8.4 5.2 72.6 57.3 31.9 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 1.6 5.1 2.7 56.9 49.9 26.1 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.3 16.7 4.9 86.9 62.1 34.5 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.2 9.7 3.9 74.1 59.5 27.1 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.8 11.0 4.7 80.9 60.7 31.6 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.8 12.1 3.6 93.6 63.7 32.4 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.1 11.0 3.5 90.2 62.2 32.4 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.4 8.3 3.6 77.5 57.3 30.3 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.8 8.2 3.2 54.8 51.0 29.4 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.6 11.0 2.8 111.3 67.5 26.9 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.7 9.9 3.3 90.1 61.3 32.0 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 2.2 7.8 2.7 67.3 53.9 26.3 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 3.5 13.0 5.1 70.1 57.5 31.5 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 2.3 7.3 2.6 64.4 52.0 25.6 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.6 6.5 89.0 63.5 37.2 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 2.5 9.4 3.3 65.9 55.8 26.1 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.2 6.4 2.4 60.4 50.5 26.1 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.2 6.7 2.5 61.4 51.0 27.9 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.1 8.8 3.6 56.7 51.8 29.1 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.9 7.8 3.9 65.6 56.2 28.5 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.5 8.1 2.8 79.6 56.9 29.7 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.0 7.5 3.7 59.2 53.7 27.6 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.3 12.2 3.0 104.6 66.2 28.6 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.6 19.4 5.3 77.0 59.5 33.1 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 1.9 6.2 2.8 58.8 50.9 25.8 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------