***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 20.7 19.1 11.0 33.4 22.7 21.4 28.5 45.3 66.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 24.0 21.8 12.1 33.8 20.9 20.4 30.3 42.5 57.1 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 25.4 24.4 11.6 35.4 22.7 21.8 32.2 47.0 64.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 28.0 41.4 16.6 60.3 39.1 31.9 35.5 52.3 71.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 23.0 30.6 16.9 55.9 35.6 29.9 28.9 43.2 60.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 25.6 35.7 24.8 63.5 41.3 32.9 28.8 43.6 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 17.9 13.8 11.8 32.2 17.3 17.7 24.1 36.5 51.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 39.2 51.1 21.0 59.4 37.1 32.0 46.3 66.7 91.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 23.0 29.2 17.0 52.9 34.3 29.2 28.1 43.4 62.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 32.1 40.6 20.7 55.1 34.3 29.7 39.2 56.7 77.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 19.1 27.5 15.0 58.1 38.1 31.6 23.5 37.7 56.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 21.6 30.7 15.1 59.7 39.1 32.2 25.1 42.5 65.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 18.3 23.9 16.4 59.3 37.1 29.8 21.1 32.9 47.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 35.7 32.2 15.5 35.6 20.3 20.2 44.7 61.9 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 13.6 22.1 14.1 61.3 42.8 34.0 16.2 27.1 41.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 16.0 22.0 14.5 57.7 36.5 29.9 19.8 31.4 46.2 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 21.6 18.3 11.7 31.9 18.8 18.5 27.7 39.8 54.3 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 35.6 40.1 23.0 51.0 30.5 27.5 42.3 59.1 78.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 27.6 26.0 11.8 34.3 21.6 21.0 34.8 48.8 64.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 33.1 39.0 27.6 60.8 35.0 31.5 37.5 50.1 64.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 25.7 29.9 13.8 46.2 31.4 27.5 30.9 45.0 61.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 30.0 26.8 11.8 32.4 19.6 19.5 36.6 49.0 63.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 27.3 25.0 11.3 33.4 20.6 20.3 33.4 45.5 59.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 30.5 30.7 16.8 40.8 24.9 23.4 37.7 53.1 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 24.8 26.3 16.1 45.2 26.4 24.0 31.8 46.8 64.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 19.5 26.3 15.2 67.3 42.0 34.5 20.7 32.2 46.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 22.7 20.6 13.9 36.3 21.3 20.3 31.0 47.6 68.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 21.4 33.7 15.1 62.5 41.8 33.3 27.0 40.4 56.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 52.3 56.7 23.5 52.1 29.4 27.2 60.5 77.6 96.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 23.2 20.0 11.9 33.8 20.5 20.1 29.2 42.9 58.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------