***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.3 18.1 -0.3 44.8 46.3 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 18.0 -0.3 44.5 45.8 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.2 18.3 -0.3 43.9 45.6 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.3 16.1 0.3 55.9 55.3 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.0 16.1 -0.3 44.1 45.9 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.4 14.1 0.2 55.8 55.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.7 18.1 -0.2 46.2 47.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.2 13.6 -0.2 45.0 47.0 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.2 16.1 -0.3 44.0 46.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.1 14.5 -0.2 45.8 47.6 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.7 15.6 -0.4 40.1 42.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.7 14.6 -0.4 41.8 44.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.9 14.3 -0.4 40.6 43.8 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.0 16.1 0.0 50.0 50.7 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.1 18.3 0.4 60.0 58.7 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.2 15.2 -0.3 42.6 44.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.3 17.8 -0.2 46.3 47.0 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.6 13.8 -0.1 48.7 50.1 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 18.0 -0.3 44.1 45.6 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.6 11.9 0.0 50.9 51.9 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.0 17.4 -0.3 43.6 45.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 18.0 0.0 49.1 49.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.9 18.1 -0.2 46.7 47.8 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.5 15.9 -0.1 46.6 48.1 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.9 16.9 -0.3 44.3 46.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.1 13.9 -0.1 47.5 49.4 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 17.5 -0.2 45.1 46.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 16.7 0.3 56.5 55.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.5 13.2 0.0 50.4 51.6 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 18.2 -0.3 44.8 46.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------