***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 14.6 15.1 18.8 -0.7 37.2 40.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.0 18.6 -0.8 34.8 38.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 16.8 17.3 19.1 -0.6 38.0 40.5 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.4 16.9 0.0 49.0 49.3 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.6 16.4 -0.6 36.9 40.3 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.5 15.0 0.0 51.2 52.0 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.6 18.8 -0.6 37.0 39.9 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.9 8.3 14.3 -0.6 36.3 40.3 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.3 -0.6 36.8 40.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.0 14.9 -0.5 37.5 40.9 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.5 16.0 -0.7 34.5 38.6 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.8 15.2 -0.6 35.5 39.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.0 14.4 -0.5 39.0 43.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.6 16.3 -0.6 37.1 40.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.3 18.7 0.3 55.7 54.1 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.4 15.4 -0.4 40.5 43.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.6 16.0 18.3 -0.7 35.4 39.0 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.4 14.0 -0.4 39.9 42.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 14.9 15.2 18.6 -0.8 34.9 38.1 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.4 11.7 -0.4 38.8 42.2 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.9 17.8 -0.6 37.0 40.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 14.5 15.1 18.4 -0.5 39.1 41.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.7 18.6 -0.7 36.1 39.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.6 16.2 -0.5 39.3 41.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.4 14.9 17.2 -0.6 37.5 40.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.5 14.6 -0.1 48.7 49.7 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.6 17.9 -0.6 37.7 40.6 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.8 17.5 0.2 53.7 52.9 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.5 13.5 -0.5 37.7 40.9 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.4 18.9 -0.7 36.3 39.2 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------