***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 26.3 25.8 27.1 -2.4 18.6 24.5 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 25.9 25.4 27.1 -2.8 15.9 21.2 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 25.6 25.1 26.8 -3.0 14.7 20.1 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 19.2 19.0 24.5 -1.8 24.7 29.7 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 26.0 25.3 24.7 -3.2 13.0 18.1 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 25.2 24.6 23.0 -2.2 19.7 24.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 25.9 25.4 27.2 -2.3 19.1 24.8 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 13.8 12.9 22.2 -3.5 10.9 15.1 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 25.7 25.0 25.6 -3.2 12.6 17.6 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 25.6 24.8 23.2 -3.4 11.9 16.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 25.6 24.7 24.9 -3.7 10.4 15.1 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 24.7 23.8 23.5 -3.7 9.8 13.8 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 25.6 24.4 24.4 -3.8 8.2 13.1 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 25.7 25.2 25.2 -3.0 13.7 19.3 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 27.5 27.6 28.3 -1.4 30.0 34.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 26.5 25.5 24.7 -3.3 11.5 16.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 25.4 24.9 27.0 -2.4 17.4 23.4 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 24.6 23.9 22.3 -3.3 12.2 17.1 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 25.3 24.8 26.9 -2.9 15.0 20.1 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 20.1 19.2 20.3 -3.1 12.1 17.2 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 25.8 25.1 26.5 -3.0 13.9 19.3 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 26.0 25.8 27.1 -2.0 21.5 27.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 25.7 25.3 26.8 -3.0 15.6 20.6 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 25.2 24.5 24.8 -3.3 12.2 17.5 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 26.1 25.5 25.8 -2.5 17.2 23.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 25.5 24.5 23.3 -3.5 10.2 14.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.2 26.6 -2.2 18.6 24.8 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.2 26.0 -1.8 24.5 29.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 19.7 18.8 21.5 -3.3 11.6 16.8 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 25.7 25.2 27.1 -2.7 16.7 22.0 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------