***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.2 29.9 -0.2 47.9 48.8 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.5 29.4 -0.6 42.2 45.1 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.9 30.0 -0.3 45.8 47.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 21.4 23.9 28.7 0.8 61.7 58.0 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 30.8 29.9 28.1 -0.2 46.7 47.7 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.6 26.2 0.7 61.1 56.7 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.7 29.7 -0.3 46.2 48.4 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 18.0 26.4 -0.2 46.7 47.6 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.3 28.1 -0.3 45.9 47.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.3 26.9 -0.1 48.2 48.9 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.3 27.8 -0.4 43.9 45.5 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.5 27.9 -0.4 44.1 45.5 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.7 29.8 26.8 -0.4 44.4 45.5 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.5 27.3 -0.5 43.4 45.6 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 32.0 32.0 30.5 1.3 68.8 63.0 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.3 30.7 27.6 -0.1 48.2 48.4 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.9 29.2 -0.6 42.3 45.4 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.5 26.2 0.0 49.7 50.1 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.0 28.0 29.5 -0.7 41.4 44.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.4 23.7 0.0 49.6 49.9 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 30.2 29.3 29.0 -0.3 45.9 47.3 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.5 29.3 -0.4 44.5 46.8 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.2 28.3 29.6 -0.6 42.0 44.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.5 27.6 -0.3 46.4 47.8 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.7 28.1 0.0 49.7 49.9 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.3 30.1 28.2 0.3 54.8 53.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.9 28.9 0.0 49.4 49.9 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 32.0 31.7 29.4 1.0 65.2 60.4 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.8 25.0 -0.1 48.5 49.3 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.5 29.7 -0.4 44.5 46.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------