***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.0 30.7 -0.1 48.4 49.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.7 30.3 -0.5 43.4 44.9 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.6 30.8 -0.3 46.2 47.8 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.1 29.3 0.7 59.9 57.5 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.0 28.9 28.7 -0.4 44.5 46.5 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.5 26.6 0.3 55.0 54.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.8 30.5 -0.2 47.6 48.1 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 16.9 27.0 -0.5 43.4 45.2 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.4 28.7 -0.4 44.0 46.1 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.3 27.5 -0.3 45.8 47.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.2 28.5 -0.6 42.0 44.4 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.7 27.5 28.5 -0.6 41.5 43.8 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.7 28.5 27.4 -0.6 41.1 43.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.1 28.0 -0.6 41.9 43.9 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.4 31.2 31.0 1.1 65.9 61.8 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.6 28.3 -0.3 46.2 47.5 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.0 28.2 30.0 -0.4 43.5 44.9 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.5 26.8 -0.2 47.1 48.1 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.1 30.4 -0.6 42.1 44.1 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.2 24.2 -0.4 44.9 46.4 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.5 29.7 -0.4 44.7 46.8 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.8 30.1 -0.3 45.7 46.3 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.0 30.4 -0.6 42.0 44.0 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 28.4 -0.3 45.2 46.8 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.2 28.8 -0.1 48.6 49.7 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.3 28.8 28.8 0.0 50.0 50.4 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.8 29.6 -0.1 49.0 50.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.4 30.9 29.9 0.9 62.7 59.5 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.7 25.6 -0.4 44.7 46.3 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.6 30.5 -0.3 45.6 46.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------