***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.3 12.4 99.3 66.1 50.8 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.2 13.0 116.9 70.3 51.0 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.3 20.3 14.1 112.6 69.5 53.5 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.0 21.0 13.6 124.9 72.2 56.5 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.6 23.1 16.7 154.1 78.1 62.9 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.9 17.8 16.7 150.4 77.4 60.7 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.2 15.1 12.7 120.2 71.0 51.4 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 28.5 34.0 21.0 148.1 77.1 62.8 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.2 25.2 16.5 135.0 74.5 59.0 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.1 31.6 22.6 149.4 77.3 62.7 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 17.3 22.3 16.2 152.5 77.9 62.5 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.3 23.7 14.7 140.7 75.5 60.3 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.6 18.7 16.9 169.8 80.7 68.7 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.9 24.5 19.9 121.9 71.3 54.8 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 14.5 13.0 159.1 79.0 52.7 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.0 17.0 15.0 148.7 77.0 63.2 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.3 8.9 12.1 119.8 70.6 49.0 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 26.7 23.0 138.6 75.0 60.5 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 17.6 13.7 114.8 69.8 51.7 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 23.9 30.2 24.5 162.4 79.5 67.7 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.0 20.6 14.4 123.1 71.8 55.8 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.8 16.6 11.8 107.4 67.5 48.0 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.0 16.2 15.6 119.9 71.0 54.0 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.1 25.3 19.6 131.5 73.8 58.0 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.3 19.4 14.5 119.8 71.0 55.1 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 12.4 17.8 14.4 194.6 84.0 69.1 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.0 17.1 13.8 110.0 68.6 52.4 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.8 17.6 14.5 143.0 75.9 56.5 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 30.1 34.1 22.9 139.8 75.3 62.4 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 13.2 12.6 108.6 68.3 50.9 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------