***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.0 9.2 77.2 54.7 40.0 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.2 8.6 77.7 55.8 44.2 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.4 12.4 98.2 63.4 50.9 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 16.5 11.2 101.2 65.1 45.7 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.8 12.5 107.2 66.4 47.0 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.1 11.1 80.9 56.7 42.4 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.6 8.1 71.6 53.7 42.0 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.4 22.1 13.5 107.3 67.0 47.2 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.3 13.3 105.0 65.5 49.1 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.5 13.6 99.9 64.0 45.3 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.8 12.4 106.7 66.3 47.5 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.2 11.3 105.4 66.2 46.5 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.7 8.2 75.0 56.0 37.4 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.1 15.8 16.0 102.0 64.4 48.9 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.7 9.7 97.7 64.5 45.6 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.4 9.9 91.7 61.6 41.9 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.7 9.0 78.5 56.2 45.0 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.6 16.2 101.3 64.0 48.5 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.1 9.8 86.5 59.3 46.5 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.0 15.1 96.6 62.1 45.7 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.4 12.7 100.9 64.5 47.1 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.2 13.6 11.9 101.8 64.8 53.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.2 12.2 99.5 63.7 50.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.1 14.9 99.0 63.0 48.2 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.4 13.8 105.4 65.6 47.5 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.6 9.3 88.2 59.7 45.3 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.1 11.7 88.5 59.3 44.6 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.1 9.7 93.5 63.2 42.5 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.2 17.6 17.8 103.1 64.1 49.8 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.9 10.8 9.3 82.1 57.5 44.5 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------