***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.3 11.2 6.7 70.1 56.7 37.1 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.1 7.9 99.6 65.5 42.1 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.8 7.6 78.9 60.2 41.7 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.7 13.0 6.7 71.7 57.4 36.8 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.4 5.9 64.8 54.8 35.8 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.3 7.9 87.1 61.6 41.9 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.4 13.7 7.7 101.1 66.1 42.3 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.1 10.3 6.1 63.6 52.6 33.9 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.5 5.8 55.9 51.4 35.1 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.9 11.5 6.6 57.8 51.3 33.7 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.5 5.0 64.2 53.7 35.0 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.6 8.0 4.8 66.3 53.8 32.8 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.3 7.3 5.7 74.8 58.0 35.9 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 15.3 9.9 79.1 60.2 42.0 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.0 5.7 5.1 66.7 56.5 35.1 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.9 5.2 69.5 55.8 35.4 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.7 17.4 8.8 115.2 69.7 45.6 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.1 11.1 8.4 62.7 52.7 37.0 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.3 15.1 7.8 92.7 63.7 41.6 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.2 7.3 8.5 69.7 53.8 37.3 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.7 6.3 62.7 54.6 35.4 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.7 16.1 9.3 105.5 67.3 45.9 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.4 7.7 84.3 61.6 41.1 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.0 11.0 8.3 69.3 56.2 39.7 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.5 10.9 7.5 71.5 57.9 38.4 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.0 8.7 4.2 70.2 55.3 33.0 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.0 7.1 68.7 56.6 37.7 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.4 5.6 66.2 55.6 35.4 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.7 13.7 9.7 70.7 55.2 40.3 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.6 14.5 7.5 90.7 63.3 40.9 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------