***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.7 6.0 80.2 60.2 35.4 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 10.5 5.3 78.6 59.2 38.1 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.7 11.0 6.4 85.1 61.6 37.1 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.8 9.7 6.3 78.4 60.2 34.0 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.6 9.8 6.0 83.9 62.0 33.2 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.7 11.2 7.9 94.5 64.8 36.9 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.1 6.4 4.8 71.9 56.1 36.8 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.1 15.0 6.6 77.6 59.0 34.6 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.9 11.2 6.6 87.1 63.0 35.6 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.0 11.0 7.3 80.3 60.7 36.1 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.8 11.1 5.4 83.8 61.5 32.0 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.2 9.8 5.0 78.9 59.4 30.8 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.5 9.3 5.4 78.0 59.9 32.0 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.4 12.2 8.5 79.3 60.6 40.7 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.0 9.7 5.8 95.3 64.4 33.0 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.2 5.8 85.3 62.3 32.4 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.8 8.3 5.1 68.3 55.9 39.0 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.5 8.7 78.8 60.2 41.5 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.8 6.3 87.4 62.4 38.4 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.8 8.9 81.6 59.2 43.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.1 11.4 6.0 80.0 60.7 34.5 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.6 7.0 81.8 61.2 41.4 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.5 11.6 7.1 90.8 63.5 36.8 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.8 7.8 78.6 60.5 41.0 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.5 9.0 6.1 75.0 59.1 35.2 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.6 9.3 4.5 81.4 60.8 32.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.4 6.1 76.3 59.0 35.5 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.9 11.6 6.8 94.1 64.7 34.3 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 20.5 9.6 83.8 61.1 43.5 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.4 8.8 5.6 81.4 59.7 36.4 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------