***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 28.3 48.0 34.3 82.8 52.0 44.1 28.5 45.3 66.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 29.0 48.9 34.8 94.3 57.4 47.7 30.3 42.5 57.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 54.5 55.8 40.4 95.7 58.6 50.0 32.2 47.0 64.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 62.3 62.8 37.7 96.2 59.2 47.9 35.5 52.3 71.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 50.1 57.6 41.1 106.1 63.7 51.9 28.9 43.2 60.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 52.7 56.9 43.7 103.4 62.1 52.5 28.8 43.6 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.3 41.7 33.4 92.0 56.1 47.0 24.1 36.5 51.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 77.1 84.9 47.2 105.5 62.5 51.5 46.3 66.7 91.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 52.2 54.1 42.3 98.6 60.0 49.3 28.1 43.4 62.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 65.5 69.9 50.1 101.8 61.0 50.1 39.2 56.7 77.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 45.3 53.0 38.9 107.0 63.7 51.7 23.5 37.7 56.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.6 58.7 35.8 103.1 62.1 50.5 25.1 42.5 65.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 39.5 43.4 36.2 102.1 62.1 51.8 21.1 32.9 47.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 70.5 72.8 54.4 98.4 59.2 49.7 44.7 61.9 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 33.9 39.3 33.6 105.9 64.4 50.3 16.2 27.1 41.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 38.4 41.7 35.9 102.1 61.8 50.5 19.8 31.4 46.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 47.1 46.4 35.0 95.5 57.8 48.5 27.7 39.8 54.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 67.2 68.6 56.4 98.8 58.8 48.9 42.3 59.1 78.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 33.9 57.2 37.6 96.8 58.8 48.9 34.8 48.8 64.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.6 60.0 57.0 105.0 61.5 51.8 37.5 50.1 64.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 52.3 52.6 39.4 94.2 58.2 48.5 30.9 45.0 61.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 35.2 57.8 40.1 99.8 60.3 50.8 36.6 49.0 63.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 51.6 54.5 42.6 100.9 61.0 51.1 33.4 45.5 59.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 60.8 62.3 50.8 97.5 58.8 49.5 37.7 53.1 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 55.4 55.3 41.9 95.7 58.6 49.2 31.8 46.8 64.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 38.1 45.6 32.3 109.6 65.2 55.3 20.7 32.2 46.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 31.4 53.0 38.7 87.7 54.4 46.2 31.0 47.6 68.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 48.8 52.1 36.6 101.1 61.8 49.0 27.0 40.4 56.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 85.2 89.3 60.0 102.1 60.1 51.0 60.5 77.6 96.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 28.9 48.6 35.1 92.0 56.3 47.2 29.2 42.9 58.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------