***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 15.5 16.2 19.1 0.9 68.9 65.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 16.0 16.2 19.1 1.0 71.0 67.9 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.1 17.7 18.9 0.8 67.0 64.6 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.4 12.2 16.2 0.0 51.1 51.1 11.2 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 13.9 14.2 16.7 0.4 58.8 57.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 12.8 13.1 14.8 0.5 61.5 60.6 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.1 19.1 0.9 67.8 65.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 7.9 8.3 14.7 0.6 63.5 62.0 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.0 15.4 17.4 0.6 63.5 62.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.0 15.5 15.5 0.7 65.1 63.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 14.8 15.3 16.4 0.7 64.5 62.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.3 15.6 0.7 66.3 64.5 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 0.5 62.7 61.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 15.7 16.1 16.9 0.6 62.5 60.8 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.1 17.5 -0.3 43.9 44.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.6 16.1 0.5 61.1 60.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.7 18.7 1.1 71.7 68.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.9 14.4 0.6 65.0 63.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 15.8 16.0 19.0 1.0 69.9 66.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 9.3 9.7 12.4 0.5 62.4 60.9 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 14.8 15.3 18.4 0.6 62.3 60.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.6 18.5 0.8 66.1 63.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 14.7 15.3 18.6 0.8 66.8 64.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.5 16.0 16.7 0.6 64.6 62.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.5 17.6 0.6 63.6 61.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 13.8 14.0 14.8 0.4 59.1 58.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.6 18.3 0.8 66.4 63.9 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.8 16.8 -0.1 47.1 47.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.6 13.9 0.6 64.0 62.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 16.1 16.2 19.3 0.9 68.6 65.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------