***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 19.0 0.4 58.1 56.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.3 19.4 0.7 65.5 62.5 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.2 18.9 0.4 59.3 56.8 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.9 16.9 -0.1 47.2 47.3 11.9 13.0 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.3 16.8 0.1 52.1 51.2 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 15.2 0.0 50.9 50.0 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 16.8 16.7 19.5 0.7 65.7 62.9 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.5 14.8 0.0 49.6 48.9 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.5 16.9 0.1 52.6 51.4 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 15.4 0.1 52.2 51.0 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.3 16.5 0.3 56.0 54.3 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.1 15.9 0.1 52.1 51.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.4 15.6 0.1 52.5 51.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.3 17.0 0.3 57.9 55.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.2 17.4 -0.4 40.4 41.6 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.8 16.3 0.1 53.4 52.3 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 17.4 17.5 19.2 0.8 68.6 65.1 15.7 16.6 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 14.6 0.2 53.8 52.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.3 19.2 0.6 64.1 61.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.5 12.9 0.0 49.9 49.1 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 18.0 0.2 54.1 52.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.5 16.0 18.8 0.6 64.7 61.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.6 18.7 0.5 61.2 58.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.0 16.7 0.3 56.6 54.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 17.4 0.2 55.3 53.9 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.9 15.3 -0.2 44.0 45.0 13.4 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 18.2 0.4 58.3 56.4 14.1 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.0 17.2 -0.3 43.4 44.1 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.9 14.1 0.2 55.2 53.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.7 19.5 0.6 63.3 60.6 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------